Richmond Park · Referee P. Norton · Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.10 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives St Patrick's Athl. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
St Patrick's Athl. win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St Patrick's Athl. home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bohemians away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St Patrick's Athl. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 25% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.10 for Bohemians, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
St Patrick's Athl.
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sligo Rovers · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundalk · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Shamrock Rovers · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Waterford · 0-2 (L)
Bohemians
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Shamrock Rovers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Waterford · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundalk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Drogheda United · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is St Patrick's Athl. win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.