Richmond Park · Referee D. Toland · Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.11 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.78 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives St Patrick's Athl. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
St Patrick's Athl. win
67.9% probability
Expected goals
2.11 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St Patrick's Athl. home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Waterford away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St Patrick's Athl. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 19% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.11 goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.78 for Waterford, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.3%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–08.6%
Recent form
St Patrick's Athl.
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sligo Rovers · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundalk · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Shamrock Rovers · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Waterford · 0-2 (L)
Waterford
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Shamrock Rovers · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Derry City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundalk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sligo Rovers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs St Patrick's Athl. · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 32 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 62 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 27 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 59 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 43 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | -6 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | -34 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is St Patrick's Athl. win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.