· Analysis updated 18:10 UTC
St. Pauli II vs Kickers Emden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for St. Pauli II and 1.67 for Kickers Emden, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Kickers Emden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.1% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St. Pauli II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kickers Emden away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.7%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–06.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 3.70 (model 38.3% vs market 25.3%, edge +13.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 3.70 | 25.3% | 38.3% | 2.61 | +13.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 53.7% | 56.7% | 1.76 | +3.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.75 | 32.6% | 33.0% | 3.03 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 23.6% | 23.7% | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.05 | 43.8% | 43.4% | 2.30 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.1% | 76.4% | 1.31 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 69.2% | 67.1% | 1.49 | -2.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.25 | 74.7% | 61.7% | 1.62 | -13.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
St. Pauli II
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs HSC Hannover · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Emden · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Drochtersen/Assel · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Norderstedt · 5-0 (W)
Kickers Emden
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Todesfelde · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Pauli II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Schöningen · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Drochtersen/Assel · 2-8 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Jeddeloh · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · St. Pauli II 0-2 Kickers Emden (Regionalliga - Nord)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · St. Pauli II 1-0 Kickers Emden (Regionalliga - Nord)
- 2025-10-01T17:00:00.000Z · St. Pauli II 1-1 Kickers Emden (Regionalliga - Nord)
- 2025-03-02T13:00:00.000Z · St. Pauli II 1-0 Kickers Emden (Regionalliga - Nord)
- 2024-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · St. Pauli II 1-0 Kickers Emden (Regionalliga - Nord)
- 2023-04-29T12:00:00.000Z · St. Pauli II 3-0 Kickers Emden (Regionalliga - Nord)
- 2022-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · St. Pauli II 2-3 Kickers Emden (Regionalliga - Nord)
Regionalliga - Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weiche Flensburg | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 34 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 II | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 33 |
| 3 | SV Drochtersen/Assel | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 31 |
| 4 | VfB Oldenburg | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 31 |
| 5 | Phönix Lübeck | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 27 |
| 6 | Schöningen | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | Atlas Delmenhorst | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Kickers Emden | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 19 |
| 9 | VfB Lübeck | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | HSC Hannover | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 17 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen II | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Eimsbütteler TV | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 15 |
| 13 | SSV Jeddeloh | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | Eintracht Norderstedt | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV II | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 13 |
| 16 | Todesfelde | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -25 | 12 |
| 17 | St. Pauli II | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Bremer SV | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -17 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.