· Analysis updated 15:00 UTC
St. Pölten II vs Donau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for St. Pölten II and 1.33 for Donau, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives St. Pölten II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
St. Pölten II win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St. Pölten II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Donau away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St. Pölten II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for St. Pölten II and 1.33 for Donau, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
St. Pölten II
- 2026-07-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Donau · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Scheiblingkirchen · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-06-07T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Korneuburg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-30T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ybbs · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-22T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Zwettl · 2-0 (W)
Donau
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Traiskirchen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Horn · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Parndorf · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Krems / Rehberg · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is St. Pölten II win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.