NV ARENA · Referee K. Lisiecka · Analysis updated 22:32 UTC
St. Pölten W vs Mitrovica W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for St. Pölten W and 1.41 for Mitrovica W, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives St. Pölten W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
St. Pölten W win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St. Pölten W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mitrovica W away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St. Pölten W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for St. Pölten W and 1.41 for Mitrovica W, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.4%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–06.5%
Recent form
St. Pölten W
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventus W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Salzburg W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventus W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T10:30:00.000Z · A vs LASK W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Rheindorf Altach W · 3-0 (W)
Mitrovica W
- 2026-08-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Metalist 1925 W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferencváros W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Brann W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Zimbru Chisinau W · 10-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Champions League Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 2 | Lyon W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 |
| 3 | Paris Saint Germain W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Bayern Munich W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Arsenal W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Inter Milano W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Chelsea W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Køge W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Juventus W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | SL Benfica W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 11 | Manchester City W | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Real Madrid W | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Austria Wien W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Paris FC W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | OH Leuven W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 16 | Roma W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
| 17 | Häcken W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Servette Chênois W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is St. Pölten W win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.