St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.41 for FC Iberia 1999, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives St. Truiden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.41

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

St. Truiden home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Iberia 1999 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St. Truiden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 24% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for St. Truiden and 1.41 for FC Iberia 1999, a combined 2.99 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

St. Truiden win42%

Draw24%

FC Iberia 1999 win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.2%
2–18.8%
1–07.9%
1–27.9%
0–17.1%

Recent form

St. Truiden

2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · A vs KV Mechelen · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KVC Westerlo · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Beveren · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union St. Gilloise · 0-3 (L)

FC Iberia 1999

2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Meshakhte · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rustavi · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dila · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Spaeri · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.