Daio Wasabi Stayen · Referee Massimiliano Ledda, Belgium · Analysis updated 14:45 UTC
St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.88 for KVC Westerlo, a combined total of 3.98. That distribution gives St. Truiden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.7% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St. Truiden home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
KVC Westerlo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St. Truiden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 21% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for St. Truiden and 1.88 for KVC Westerlo, a combined 3.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–26.9%
- 3–15.4%
Recent form
St. Truiden
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Midtjylland · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lommel United · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · A vs KV Mechelen · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KVC Westerlo · 0-2 (L)
KVC Westerlo
- 2026-10-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs SK Beveren · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Patro Eisden · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Antwerp · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Truiden · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liege · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Lommel United | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Zulte Waregem | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Antwerp | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | SK Beveren | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 15 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | OH Leuven | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.