Daio Wasabi Stayen · Referee N. Verboomen · Analysis updated 06:06 UTC
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for St. Truiden and 2.60 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Union St. Gilloise the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Union St. Gilloise win
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 2.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
St. Truiden home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Union St. Gilloise away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.0%
- 1–37.8%
- 0–27.2%
- 1–16.9%
- 0–36.2%
Recent form
St. Truiden
- 2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · A vs KV Mechelen · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KVC Westerlo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Beveren · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union St. Gilloise · 0-3 (L)
Union St. Gilloise
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Nijlen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs OH Leuven · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Antwerp · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Plzen · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · St. Truiden 0-3 Union St. Gilloise (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2026-05-02T18:45:00.000Z · St. Truiden 2-1 Union St. Gilloise (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2026-04-04T18:45:00.000Z · St. Truiden 0-1 Union St. Gilloise (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2026-03-22T17:30:00.000Z · St. Truiden 1-3 Union St. Gilloise (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-10-26T18:15:00.000Z · St. Truiden 0-2 Union St. Gilloise (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-02-02T15:00:00.000Z · St. Truiden 1-2 Union St. Gilloise (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · St. Truiden 0-0 Union St. Gilloise (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-01-21T15:00:00.000Z · St. Truiden 1-2 Union St. Gilloise (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-10-08T17:15:00.000Z · St. Truiden 0-4 Union St. Gilloise (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-04-02T17:15:00.000Z · St. Truiden 1-2 Union St. Gilloise (Jupiler Pro League)
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Union St. Gilloise win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.