· Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
Stabæk II vs Haugesund II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.20 expected goals for Stabæk II and 1.87 for Haugesund II, a combined total of 5.07. That distribution gives Stabæk II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stabæk II win
64.1% probability
Expected goals
3.20 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stabæk II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Haugesund II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stabæk II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 16% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.20 goals for Stabæk II and 1.87 for Haugesund II, a combined 5.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.4%
- 2–16.0%
- 3–26.0%
- 2–25.6%
- 4–15.1%
Recent form
Stabæk II
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandalskameratene · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Haugesund II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Flekkerøy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Odd II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vindbjart · 3-1 (W)
Haugesund II
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stabæk II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hinna · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Madla · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Våg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Odd II · 0-7 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Madla | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 30 | 45 |
| 2 | Mandalskameratene | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 43 |
| 3 | Flekkerøy | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 39 |
| 4 | Vindbjart | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 38 |
| 5 | Varhaug | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Viking II | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 32 |
| 7 | Stabæk II | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -2 | 30 |
| 8 | Brodd | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -2 | 30 |
| 9 | Våg | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -3 | 29 |
| 10 | Staal Jørpeland | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -9 | 26 |
| 11 | Odd II | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 12 | Hinna | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -21 | 23 |
| 13 | Haugesund II | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -23 | 22 |
| 14 | Åkra | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -39 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stabæk II win, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.