Stabæk II vs Staal Jørpeland Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Stabæk II and 1.98 for Staal Jørpeland, a combined total of 4.58. That distribution gives Stabæk II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Stabæk II win

51.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.60 – 1.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stabæk II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Staal Jørpeland away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stabæk II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 19% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for Stabæk II and 1.98 for Staal Jørpeland, a combined 4.58 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Stabæk II win52%

Draw19%

Staal Jørpeland win30%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals67%

Both teams to score80%

Correct score

2–16.9%
2–26.8%
3–16.0%
3–25.9%
1–15.3%

Recent form

Stabæk II

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandalskameratene · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Haugesund II · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Flekkerøy · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Odd II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vindbjart · 3-1 (W)

Staal Jørpeland

2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hinna · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Varhaug · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Viking II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brodd · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mandalskameratene · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Madla	23	14	6	3	32	48
2	Mandalskameratene	23	13	4	6	20	43
3	Flekkerøy	23	12	3	8	8	39
4	Vindbjart	23	12	2	9	20	38
5	Varhaug	23	10	6	7	5	36
6	Viking II	23	10	5	8	23	35
7	Brodd	23	10	3	10	2	33
8	Stabæk II	23	10	3	10	-1	33
9	Våg	23	10	2	11	1	32
10	Odd II	23	8	5	10	-10	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	23	7	5	11	-13	26
12	Haugesund II	23	7	4	12	-21	25
13	Hinna	23	6	5	12	-25	23
14	Åkra	23	4	3	16	-41	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Stabæk II win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.