Stabaek vs Lyn Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.25 for Lyn, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Stabaek the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Stabaek win

63.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.43 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stabaek home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lyn away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Stabaek win63%

Draw18%

Lyn win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

2–19.3%
1–17.7%
3–17.5%
2–07.5%
1–06.1%

Recent form

Stabaek

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strommen · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haugesund · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pors Grenland · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bryne · 0-2 (L)

Lyn

2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bryne · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamle Oslo · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs hodd · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Egersund · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · Stabaek 4-3 Lyn (1. Division)
2026-05-01T14:00:00.000Z · Stabaek 4-0 Lyn (1. Division)
2025-11-02T16:00:00.000Z · Stabaek 1-5 Lyn (1. Division)
2025-04-06T15:00:00.000Z · Stabaek 1-0 Lyn (1. Division)
2024-08-04T12:30:00.000Z · Stabaek 1-7 Lyn (1. Division)
2024-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · Stabaek 2-2 Lyn (1. Division)
2022-05-19T16:00:00.000Z · Stabaek 3-2 Lyn (NM Cupen)

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kongsvinger	25	17	5	3	39	56
2	Haugesund	25	18	2	5	35	56
3	Stromsgodset	25	16	6	3	34	54
4	Stabaek	25	14	4	7	26	46
5	ODD Ballklubb	25	12	6	7	13	42
6	Bryne	25	12	2	11	1	38
7	hodd	25	10	4	11	-10	34
8	Egersund	25	9	5	11	-11	32
9	Ranheim	25	9	4	12	-1	31
10	Lyn	25	8	4	13	-14	28
11	Moss	25	8	4	13	-15	28
12	Strommen	25	7	6	12	-17	27
13	Sandnes ULF	25	7	5	13	-10	26
14	Sogndal	24	6	5	13	-16	23
15	Asane	25	6	5	14	-18	23
16	Raufoss	24	6	1	17	-36	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Stabaek win, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.