Stabaek vs Strommen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.89 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.18 for Strommen, a combined total of 4.07. That distribution gives Stabaek the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Stabaek win

72.4% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.89 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stabaek home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Strommen away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stabaek to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 15% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.89 goals for Stabaek and 1.18 for Strommen, a combined 4.07 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Stabaek win72%

Draw15%

Strommen win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

28%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals58%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

2–18.4%
3–18.1%
2–07.1%
3–06.9%
4–15.9%

Recent form

Stabaek

2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Asane · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandnes ULF · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strommen · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haugesund · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal · 2-1 (W)

Strommen

2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Haugesund · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sogndal · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromsdalen Uil · 1-9 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bryne · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Moss · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Stromsgodset	27	18	6	3	43	60
2	Kongsvinger	27	18	5	4	39	59
3	Haugesund	27	19	2	6	33	59
4	Stabaek	27	16	4	7	30	52
5	ODD Ballklubb	27	13	6	8	13	45
6	Bryne	27	12	3	12	-1	39
7	hodd	27	11	5	11	-6	38
8	Ranheim	27	10	5	12	1	35
9	Egersund	27	9	7	11	-11	34
10	Strommen	27	9	6	12	-11	33
11	Lyn	27	9	4	14	-16	31
12	Moss	27	8	5	14	-16	29
13	Sogndal	27	7	6	14	-16	27
14	Sandnes ULF	27	7	5	15	-17	26
15	Asane	27	6	5	16	-24	23
16	Raufoss	27	6	2	19	-41	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Stabaek win, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.