Stabaek vs Stromsgodset Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Stabaek and 2.25 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Stromsgodset the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Stromsgodset win

51.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 2.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stabaek home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Stromsgodset away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Stabaek win29%

Draw20%

Stromsgodset win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

1–28.4%
1–17.4%
2–27.0%
1–36.3%
2–16.2%

Recent form

Stabaek

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strommen · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haugesund · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pors Grenland · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bryne · 0-2 (L)

Stromsgodset

2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kongsvinger · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyn · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Asane · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Raufoss · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandnes ULF · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · Stabaek 1-2 Stromsgodset (1. Division)
2025-02-07T12:00:00.000Z · Stabaek 1-4 Stromsgodset (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-09-03T15:00:00.000Z · Stabaek 1-2 Stromsgodset (Eliteserien)
2023-07-03T17:00:00.000Z · Stabaek 0-1 Stromsgodset (Eliteserien)
2021-09-29T17:00:00.000Z · Stabaek 0-0 Stromsgodset (Eliteserien)
2021-09-22T16:00:00.000Z · Stabaek 1-5 Stromsgodset (NM Cupen)
2021-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · Stabaek 1-2 Stromsgodset (Eliteserien)
2020-12-22T17:00:00.000Z · Stabaek 4-0 Stromsgodset (Eliteserien)

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Haugesund	26	19	2	5	38	59
2	Stromsgodset	26	17	6	3	38	57
3	Kongsvinger	26	17	5	4	35	56
4	Stabaek	26	15	4	7	29	49
5	ODD Ballklubb	26	13	6	7	14	45
6	Bryne	26	12	3	11	1	39
7	hodd	26	10	5	11	-10	35
8	Egersund	26	9	6	11	-11	33
9	Ranheim	26	9	5	12	-1	32
10	Strommen	26	8	6	12	-12	30
11	Moss	26	8	5	13	-15	29
12	Lyn	26	8	4	14	-17	28
13	Sandnes ULF	26	7	5	14	-13	26
14	Sogndal	25	6	5	14	-17	23
15	Asane	26	6	5	15	-23	23
16	Raufoss	25	6	2	17	-36	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Stromsgodset win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.