Stade Francis-Le-Blé · Referee Eric Wattellier, France · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 0.98 for Angers, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Stade Brestois 29 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stade Brestois 29 win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Brestois 29 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade Brestois 29 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 0.98 for Angers, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–09.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 51.9% vs market 44.2%, edge +7.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 44.2% | 51.9% | 1.93 | +7.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.4% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.91 | 48.2% | 48.5% | 2.06 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.3% | 26.3% | 3.80 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.60 | 25.6% | 25.2% | 3.97 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.3% | 74.8% | 1.34 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 52.3% | 51.5% | 1.94 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 55.8% | 48.1% | 2.08 | -7.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Stade Brestois 29
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
Angers
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stade Brestois 29 win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.