Stade Francis-Le-Blé · Analysis updated 06:51 UTC
Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.30 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Stade Brestois 29 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Stade Brestois 29 win
65.7% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Brestois 29 home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Auxerre away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade Brestois 29 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 17% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.30 for Auxerre, a combined 3.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–06.8%
- 1–16.7%
- 3–06.0%
Recent form
Stade Brestois 29
- 2026-10-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 1-2 (L)
Auxerre
- 2026-10-18T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Rennes · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Clermont Foot · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stade Brestois 29 win, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.