Stade Francis-Le-Blé · Analysis updated 16:04 UTC
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.53 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Lyon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lyon win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Brestois 29 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lyon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.9%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–211.4%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–29.1%
Recent form
Stade Brestois 29
- 2026-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 0-1 (L)
Lyon
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-18T19:45:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 1-2 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2025-11-02T19:45:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 0-0 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2025-03-02T14:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 1-2 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2025-01-11T16:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 2-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2024-04-14T18:45:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 3-4 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2023-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 1-0 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2023-02-01T20:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 0-0 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2022-12-28T20:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 2-4 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2022-04-20T19:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 2-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2021-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 1-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Lens | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Marseille | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Nice | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lyon win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.