Stade Brestois 29 vs Marseille Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.48 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Marseille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stade Brestois 29 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marseille away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Stade Brestois 29 win35%

Draw25%

Marseille win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.7%
1–28.7%
0–18.5%
2–18.1%
1–08.0%

Recent form

Stade Brestois 29

2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)

Marseille

2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rennes · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-02-20T19:45:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2025-11-08T16:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 0-3 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2025-04-27T18:45:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 1-4 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2024-08-17T15:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 1-5 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2024-02-18T19:45:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 1-0 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2023-08-26T17:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 0-2 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2023-05-27T19:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 2-1 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2022-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 1-1 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2022-03-13T19:45:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 1-4 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2021-12-04T16:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 2-1 Marseille (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.