Stade Francis-Le-Blé · Referee Willy Delajod, France · Analysis updated 13:47 UTC
Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.85 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Stade Brestois 29 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.5% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Brestois 29 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paris Saint Germain away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.9%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.2%
Recent form
Stade Brestois 29
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
Paris Saint Germain
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
- 2026-05-10T19:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
- 2025-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 0-3 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
- 2025-02-19T20:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 0-7 Paris Saint Germain (UEFA Champions League)
- 2025-02-11T17:45:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 0-3 Paris Saint Germain (UEFA Champions League)
- 2025-02-01T16:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 2-5 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
- 2024-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 1-3 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
- 2024-02-07T20:10:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 1-3 Paris Saint Germain (Coupe de France)
- 2024-01-28T19:45:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 2-2 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
- 2023-10-29T12:00:00.000Z · Stade Brestois 29 2-3 Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.