Stade Fred-Aubert · Analysis updated 12:52 UTC
Stade Briochin vs Lorient II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Stade Briochin and 1.05 for Lorient II, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Lorient II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.6% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Briochin home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lorient II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lorient II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 27% / 32% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Stade Briochin and 1.05 for Lorient II, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.9%
- 0–016.1%
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–28.9%
Recent form
Stade Briochin
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint-Colomban Locminé · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Versailles · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Quevilly · 3-0 (W)
Lorient II
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Briochin · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pontivy GSI · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayonne · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarbes · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angoulême | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Bayonne | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Avranches | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Lorient II | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Granville | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinan Léhon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Saint-Malo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Stade Briochin | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Le Poiré sur Vie | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Tarbes | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Colomban Locminé | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Les Herbiers | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Saumur | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Pontivy GSI | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Châteaubriant | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | Chauray | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.