France · Ligue 3 · Matchweek 3317:30

30

Saturday, 9 May 2026

Stade Fred-Aubert · Analysis updated 11:17 UTC

Stade Briochin vs Quevilly Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Stade Briochin and 1.48 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Quevilly the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Quevilly win

46.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Stade Briochin win27%
Draw26%
Quevilly win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Both teams to score50%

Correct score

  • 1–112.4%
  • 0–111.8%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 0–28.7%
  • 1–08.4%

Why the model likes this

  • Quevilly away threat

    Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Quevilly to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 27% / 26% / 47% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.05 goals for Stade Briochin and 1.48 for Quevilly, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Stade Briochin

    Quevilly

    • 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Concarneau · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gobelins · 0-1 (L)
    • 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Oissel · 2-0 (W)
    • 2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Avranches · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Clermont Foot · 1-1 (D)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.