Stade Briochin vs Quevilly Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Stade Briochin and 1.48 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Quevilly the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Quevilly win

46.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stade Briochin home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Quevilly away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Quevilly to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 27% / 26% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Stade Briochin and 1.48 for Quevilly, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Stade Briochin win27%

Draw26%

Quevilly win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.4%
0–111.8%
1–29.1%
0–28.7%
1–08.4%

Recent form

Stade Briochin

2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint-Colomban Locminé · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Versailles · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Quevilly · 3-0 (W)

Quevilly

2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cannes · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Amiens · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Versailles · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Puy Foot · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs La Roche VF · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-09T17:30:00.000Z · Stade Briochin 3-0 Quevilly (Ligue 3)
2026-01-16T18:30:00.000Z · Stade Briochin 0-0 Quevilly (Ligue 3)
2021-03-27T17:00:00.000Z · Stade Briochin 1-1 Quevilly (Ligue 3)
2020-11-24T17:00:00.000Z · Stade Briochin 1-2 Quevilly (Ligue 3)

Ligue 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	La Roche VF	10	6	3	1	6	21
2	Rouen	10	6	2	2	10	20
3	Versailles	10	6	1	3	2	19
4	Caen	10	6	0	4	6	18
5	Concarneau	10	4	5	1	4	17
6	Le Puy Foot	10	5	1	4	3	16
7	Amiens	10	4	4	2	9	16
8	Cannes	10	3	6	1	6	15
9	Fleury 91	10	4	3	3	4	15
10	Gobelins	10	4	3	3	0	15
11	Quevilly	10	3	4	3	-3	13
12	Thionville Lusitanos	10	3	3	4	-1	12
13	Bastia	10	3	3	4	-4	12
14	Valenciennes	10	2	3	5	-5	9
15	Orleans	10	2	3	5	-5	9
16	Aubagne	10	2	1	7	-7	7
17	Villefranche	10	2	1	7	-14	7
18	Bourg-en-bresse 01	10	1	2	7	-11	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Quevilly win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.