Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Stade de Mbour and 0.73 for Guédiawaye, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Stade de Mbour the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

73.8% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.98 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stade de Mbour home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Guédiawaye away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Stade de Mbour win40%

Draw34%

Guédiawaye win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

66%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals51%

Over 2.5 goals24%

Over 3.5 goals9%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

0–018.3%
1–017.8%
0–113.2%
1–112.9%
2–08.7%

Recent form

Stade de Mbour

2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Guédiawaye · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Wally Daan · 0-0 (D)
2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorée · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Guédiawaye · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Teungueth · 0-2 (L)

Guédiawaye

2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Stade de Mbour · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs DSC · 2-1 (W)
2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Teungueth · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade de Mbour · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wally Daan · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 0-0 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 0-2 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
2026-02-08T16:30:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 0-0 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
2024-03-28T16:30:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 1-3 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
2023-11-26T16:30:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 1-1 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
2023-03-19T16:30:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 1-1 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
2022-10-15T17:00:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 1-0 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
2018-05-19T18:30:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 3-1 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
2018-02-11T17:00:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 0-0 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
2017-04-02T17:00:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 0-1 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Génération Foot	2	1	1	0	3	4
2	Jaraaf	2	1	1	0	2	4
3	Gorée	2	1	1	0	2	4
4	Wally Daan	2	1	1	0	2	4
5	HLM	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	Guédiawaye	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Diambars	2	1	0	1	0	3
8	AJEL	2	0	2	0	0	2
9	Stade de Mbour	2	0	2	0	0	2
10	DSC	2	0	1	1	-1	1
11	Essamaye	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Casa Sport	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Pikine	2	0	1	1	-3	1
14	Teungueth	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ouakam	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	La Linguère	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.