· Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Stade de Mbour and 0.64 for Guédiawaye, a combined total of 1.60. That distribution gives Stade de Mbour the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
76.4% probability
Expected goals
0.96 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade de Mbour home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Guédiawaye away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–020.2%
- 1–019.4%
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–09.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.44 (model 70.8% vs market 63.0%, edge +7.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.44 | 63.0% | 70.8% | 1.41 | +7.8 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 41.1% | 41.8% | 2.39 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.44 | 64.7% | 65.4% | 1.53 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 57.6% | 58.2% | 1.72 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 3.75 | 23.6% | 23.6% | 4.24 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.50 | 35.3% | 34.6% | 2.89 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 77.7% | 76.4% | 1.31 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.45 | 37.0% | 29.2% | 3.42 | -7.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Stade de Mbour
- 2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Guédiawaye · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Wally Daan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorée · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Guédiawaye · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Teungueth · 0-2 (L)
Guédiawaye
- 2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Stade de Mbour · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs DSC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Teungueth · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade de Mbour · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wally Daan · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 0-0 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 0-2 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
- 2026-02-08T16:30:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 0-0 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
- 2024-03-28T16:30:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 1-3 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
- 2023-11-26T16:30:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 1-1 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
- 2023-03-19T16:30:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 1-1 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
- 2022-10-15T17:00:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 1-0 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
- 2018-05-19T18:30:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 3-1 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
- 2018-02-11T17:00:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 0-0 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
- 2017-04-02T17:00:00.000Z · Stade de Mbour 0-1 Guédiawaye (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Génération Foot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Jaraaf | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Gorée | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Wally Daan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | HLM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Guédiawaye | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Diambars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | AJEL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Stade de Mbour | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | DSC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 11 | Essamaye | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Casa Sport | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Pikine | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Teungueth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Ouakam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | La Linguère | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 76.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.