Stade Gabesien vs EGS Gafsa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Stade Gabesien and 0.88 for EGS Gafsa, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Stade Gabesien the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Stade Gabesien win

58.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stade Gabesien home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
EGS Gafsa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Stade Gabesien win59%

Draw23%

EGS Gafsa win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–012.5%
2–011.1%
1–111.0%
2–19.7%
0–07.1%

Recent form

Stade Gabesien

2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Hammam-Lif · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Tataouine · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs CS Sfaxien · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Djelma · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · 0-0 (D)

EGS Gafsa

2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Kasserine · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs EO Sidi Bouzid · 5-2 (W)
2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ariana · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-28T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Jendouba Sport · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ksour Essef · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-05T13:30:00.000Z · Stade Gabesien 2-1 EGS Gafsa (Ligue 2)
2025-11-08T13:30:00.000Z · Stade Gabesien 0-1 EGS Gafsa (Ligue 2)
2023-04-29T15:00:00.000Z · Stade Gabesien 0-0 EGS Gafsa (Ligue 2)
2022-12-11T12:30:00.000Z · Stade Gabesien 1-2 EGS Gafsa (Ligue 2)
2022-03-12T13:00:00.000Z · Stade Gabesien 0-0 EGS Gafsa (Ligue 2)
2022-02-06T13:00:00.000Z · Stade Gabesien 0-1 EGS Gafsa (Ligue 2)
2021-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · Stade Gabesien 1-2 EGS Gafsa (Ligue 2)
2021-02-20T13:00:00.000Z · Stade Gabesien 1-1 EGS Gafsa (Ligue 2)
2016-02-21T13:00:00.000Z · Stade Gabesien 0-2 EGS Gafsa (Ligue 1)
2015-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · Stade Gabesien 1-0 EGS Gafsa (Ligue 1)

Ligue 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Redeyef	2	2	0	0	6	6
2	EM Mahdia	2	2	0	0	2	6
3	AS Kasserine	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	JS Kairouanaise	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	AS Soliman	2	1	1	0	3	4
6	Mégrine	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	BS Bouhajla	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	M'saken	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Sfax Railways	2	1	1	0	1	4
10	Ksour Essef	2	1	1	0	1	4
11	Sporting Ben Arous	2	1	0	1	2	3
12	Korba	2	1	0	1	2	3
13	Kalaâ Sport	2	1	0	1	0	3
14	Jendouba Sport	2	1	0	1	0	3
15	US Tataouine	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Bouchamma	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Stade Gabesien	2	0	2	0	0	2
18	Béni-Khalled	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Stade Soussien	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	AS Gabes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Ariana	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	CS Chebba	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Olympique du Kef	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	AS Agareb	2	0	1	1	-3	1
25	Moknine	2	0	1	1	-3	1
26	Kerkennah	2	0	0	2	-2	0
27	CO Medenine	2	0	0	2	-2	0
28	EGS Gafsa	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Stade Gabesien win, at 58.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.