· Analysis updated 04:21 UTC
Stade Gabesien vs ES Sahel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Stade Gabesien and 1.07 for ES Sahel, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Stade Gabesien the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Gabesien home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
ES Sahel away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade Gabesien to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Stade Gabesien and 1.07 for ES Sahel, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–110.0%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–18.4%
Recent form
Stade Gabesien
- 2026-10-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Redeyef · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bouchamma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Moknine · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ariana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Hammam-Lif · 0-3 (L)
ES Sahel
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Olympique Béja · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs CS Hammam-Lif · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Marsa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Metlaoui · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.