Centre Sportif de Vidy Terrain Annexe 1 · Analysis updated 10:40 UTC
Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy III vs UGS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy III and 1.58 for UGS, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives UGS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UGS away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UGS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 35% / 24% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy III and 1.58 for UGS, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–18.0%
- 0–17.6%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy III
UGS
- 2025-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Collex-Bossy · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Signal · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-05-31T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy III · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Martigny Sports · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Collombey-Muraz · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Liga Interregional - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amical Saint-Prex | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 61 |
| 2 | Martigny Sports | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 59 |
| 3 | Collex-Bossy | 30 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 18 | 52 |
| 4 | Terre Sainte | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 45 |
| 5 | Farvagny / Ogoz | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 44 |
| 6 | Pully Football | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | -3 | 43 |
| 7 | Olympique de Genève | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 43 |
| 8 | Vernier | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 42 |
| 9 | UGS | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 40 |
| 10 | Concordia Lausanne | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 37 |
| 11 | Signal | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | -4 | 37 |
| 12 | Echichens | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -7 | 36 |
| 13 | Collombey-Muraz | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 14 | Romontois | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -13 | 35 |
| 15 | Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy III | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | -15 | 32 |
| 16 | Châtel-St-Denis | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | -49 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.