Stade Olympique de la Pontaise · Analysis updated 11:19 UTC
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Étoile Carouge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 0.68 for Étoile Carouge, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win
68.3% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Étoile Carouge away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 20% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 0.68 for Étoile Carouge, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 2–013.7%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–09.1%
Recent form
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapperswil · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenoble · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Sion · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon Sport · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FC WIL 1900 · 4-0 (W)
Étoile Carouge
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Yverdon Sport · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Kriens · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Winterthur · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:15:00.000Z · H vs FC WIL 1900 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.