Stade Olympique de la Pontaise · Analysis updated 11:08 UTC
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs SC Kriens Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 0.67 for SC Kriens, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win
67.9% probability
Expected goals
1.96 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SC Kriens away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 20% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.96 goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 0.67 for SC Kriens, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 2–013.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–09.1%
Recent form
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
- 2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Étoile Carouge · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapperswil · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenoble · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Sion · 4-2 (W)
SC Kriens
- 2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon Sport · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FC WIL 1900 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Thun · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Étoile Carouge · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Aarau · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | Yverdon Sport | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Winterthur | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | SC Kriens | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Rapperswil | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | FC WIL 1900 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -20 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.