Stade Olympique de la Pontaise · Referee M. Odiet · Analysis updated 23:29 UTC
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Stade Nyonnais Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.87 expected goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 0.39 for Stade Nyonnais, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win
87.5% probability
Expected goals
2.87 – 0.39
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Stade Nyonnais away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 88%, against 88% / 10% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.87 goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 0.39 for Stade Nyonnais, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
13%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.8%
- 3–015.1%
- 1–011.1%
- 4–010.8%
- 5–06.2%
Recent form
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapperswil · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenoble · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Sion · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon Sport · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FC WIL 1900 · 4-0 (W)
Stade Nyonnais
- 2026-10-23T18:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Winterthur · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Basel 1893 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Aarau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs FC WIL 1900 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | SC Kriens | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Rapperswil | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | FC WIL 1900 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -20 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win, at 87.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.