· Analysis updated 16:28 UTC
Stade Malien Bamako vs Bougouni Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for Stade Malien Bamako and 0.33 for Bougouni, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Stade Malien Bamako the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stade Malien Bamako win
75.3% probability
Expected goals
1.87 – 0.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Malien Bamako home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade Malien Bamako to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 19% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.87 goals for Stade Malien Bamako and 0.33 for Bougouni, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 24%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.7%
- 2–019.4%
- 3–012.1%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–16.8%
Recent form
Stade Malien Bamako
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombe · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Colombe · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-13T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Diarra · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Binga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Bakaridjan · 2-0 (W)
Bougouni
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Première Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Djoliba | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 59 |
| 2 | Stade Malien Bamako | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 50 |
| 3 | Réal Bamako | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 4 | Diarra | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 44 |
| 5 | Binga | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 43 |
| 6 | USFAS Bamako | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 42 |
| 7 | ASKO | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 33 |
| 8 | US Bougouba | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -13 | 31 |
| 9 | Derby Academie | 26 | 5 | 14 | 7 | -3 | 29 |
| 10 | Bakaridjan | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -7 | 27 |
| 11 | Afrique Football Élite | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -15 | 27 |
| 12 | Onze Créateurs | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 26 |
| 13 | Mali Coura | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 20 |
| 14 | Bougouni | 26 | 4 | 4 | 18 | -31 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stade Malien Bamako win, at 75.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.