· Analysis updated 18:08 UTC
Stade Malien Bamako vs US Bougouba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Stade Malien Bamako and 0.75 for US Bougouba, a combined total of 1.73. That distribution gives Stade Malien Bamako the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.9% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Malien Bamako home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
US Bougouba away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.8%
- 1–017.4%
- 0–113.4%
- 1–113.0%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
Stade Malien Bamako
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombe · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Colombe · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-13T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Diarra · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Binga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Bakaridjan · 2-0 (W)
US Bougouba
- 2026-06-13T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Réal Bamako · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Diarra · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-06-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Binga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Bakaridjan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-25T18:30:00.000Z · A vs USFAS Bamako · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-16T16:30:00.000Z · Stade Malien Bamako 1-0 US Bougouba (Première Division)
- 2025-12-21T16:00:00.000Z · Stade Malien Bamako 1-0 US Bougouba (Première Division)
- 2025-05-10T17:00:00.000Z · Stade Malien Bamako 3-0 US Bougouba (Première Division)
- 2025-03-04T16:00:00.000Z · Stade Malien Bamako 3-2 US Bougouba (Première Division)
- 2024-05-09T16:30:00.000Z · Stade Malien Bamako 1-0 US Bougouba (Première Division)
- 2024-01-10T15:45:00.000Z · Stade Malien Bamako 2-0 US Bougouba (Première Division)
- 2022-06-01T16:00:00.000Z · Stade Malien Bamako 1-0 US Bougouba (Première Division)
- 2022-01-08T16:00:00.000Z · Stade Malien Bamako 1-0 US Bougouba (Première Division)
Première Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Djoliba | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 59 |
| 2 | Stade Malien Bamako | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 50 |
| 3 | Réal Bamako | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 4 | Diarra | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 44 |
| 5 | Binga | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 43 |
| 6 | USFAS Bamako | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 42 |
| 7 | ASKO | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 33 |
| 8 | US Bougouba | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -13 | 31 |
| 9 | Derby Academie | 26 | 5 | 14 | 7 | -3 | 29 |
| 10 | Bakaridjan | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -7 | 27 |
| 11 | Afrique Football Élite | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -15 | 27 |
| 12 | Onze Créateurs | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 26 |
| 13 | Mali Coura | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 20 |
| 14 | Bougouni | 26 | 4 | 4 | 18 | -31 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.