· Analysis updated 14:53 UTC
Stade Mouscronnois vs Acren-Lessines Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Stade Mouscronnois and 1.71 for Acren-Lessines, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives Stade Mouscronnois the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stade Mouscronnois win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Mouscronnois home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Acren-Lessines away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade Mouscronnois to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 20% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for Stade Mouscronnois and 1.71 for Acren-Lessines, a combined 4.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–16.3%
- 1–26.0%
Recent form
Stade Mouscronnois
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aywaille · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs La Calamine · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Acren-Lessines · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs RUS Binche · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Eupen II · 1-1 (D)
Acren-Lessines
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aywaille · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Namur · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · A vs La Calamine · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Braine · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Mouscronnois · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - ACFF table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jette | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Crossing Schaerbeek | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | SG-Tertre-Hautrage | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Stade Mouscronnois | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Braine | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Ganshoren | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | AS Eupen II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | RUS Binche | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Stade Verviers | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 10 | Richelle United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Huy | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Acren-Lessines | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 13 | La Calamine | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 14 | Ostiches | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Stockay-Warfusée | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Entité Manageoise | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 17 | Union Namur | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Aywaille | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stade Mouscronnois win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.