Stade Mouscronnois vs La Calamine Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Stade Mouscronnois and 1.20 for La Calamine, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Stade Mouscronnois the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stade Mouscronnois home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
La Calamine away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade Mouscronnois to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Stade Mouscronnois and 1.20 for La Calamine, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Stade Mouscronnois win40%

Draw27%

La Calamine win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–010.6%
0–19.6%
2–18.4%
0–08.0%

Recent form

Stade Mouscronnois

2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aywaille · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs La Calamine · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Acren-Lessines · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs RUS Binche · 4-4 (D)
2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Eupen II · 1-1 (D)

La Calamine

2026-10-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Richelle United · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-17T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Ganshoren · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Entité Manageoise · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Aywaille · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Acren-Lessines · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second Amateur Division - ACFF table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SG-Tertre-Hautrage	10	7	1	2	11	22
2	Crossing Schaerbeek	10	6	2	2	11	20
3	Jette	10	5	5	0	9	20
4	Stade Mouscronnois	10	5	2	3	4	17
5	Huy	10	5	2	3	3	17
6	Braine	10	5	2	3	1	17
7	Ganshoren	10	5	1	4	6	16
8	AS Eupen II	10	4	3	3	1	15
9	Acren-Lessines	10	4	2	4	3	14
10	Ostiches	10	3	5	2	2	14
11	Richelle United	10	4	2	4	-1	14
12	La Calamine	10	4	1	5	1	13
13	RUS Binche	10	3	4	3	-3	13
14	Stade Verviers	10	3	3	4	2	12
15	Stockay-Warfusée	10	3	3	4	-4	12
16	Entité Manageoise	10	2	2	6	-7	8
17	Union Namur	10	1	1	8	-21	4
18	Aywaille	10	0	1	9	-18	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.