Colovray Sports Centre · Referee D. Anex · Analysis updated 16:40 UTC
Stade Nyonnais vs FC Winterthur Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Stade Nyonnais and 2.28 for FC Winterthur, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives FC Winterthur the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Winterthur win
67.3% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 2.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Nyonnais home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Winterthur away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Winterthur to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 14% / 18% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Stade Nyonnais and 2.28 for FC Winterthur, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.3%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–18.6%
- 0–37.8%
Recent form
Stade Nyonnais
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs FC WIL 1900 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon Sport · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Winterthur · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Kriens · 0-3 (L)
FC Winterthur
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Basel 1893 · 7-3 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Seuzach · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Aarau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Étoile Carouge · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Yverdon Sport | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | FC Winterthur | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | SC Kriens | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 7 | Rapperswil | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | FC WIL 1900 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 | Étoile Carouge | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Winterthur win, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.