Stade Payerne vs Azzurri Bienne Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Stade Payerne and 2.71 for Azzurri Bienne, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Azzurri Bienne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Azzurri Bienne win

63.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.49 – 2.71

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stade Payerne home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Azzurri Bienne away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Azzurri Bienne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 20% / 17% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Stade Payerne and 2.71 for Azzurri Bienne, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Stade Payerne win20%

Draw17%

Azzurri Bienne win63%

Double chance 1X

37%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–28.2%
1–37.4%
2–26.1%
1–16.1%
2–35.5%

Recent form

Stade Payerne

2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chênois · 5-2 (W)
2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Vevey Sports · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Portalban / Gletterens · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sion II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lancy · 3-1 (W)

Azzurri Bienne

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Muri-Gümligen · 4-4 (D)
2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Echallens · 6-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Naters · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs La Chaux-de-Fonds · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Monthey · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Azzurri Bienne	11	9	0	2	16	27
2	Prishtina Bern	11	8	2	1	22	26
3	Servette II	11	6	4	1	3	22
4	Lausanne Sport II	11	4	5	2	7	17
5	Naters	11	5	2	4	-6	17
6	Sion II	11	4	4	3	1	16
7	Portalban / Gletterens	10	4	2	4	5	14
8	Monthey	10	3	5	2	2	14
9	Chênois	11	4	2	5	-1	14
10	Lancy	11	4	1	6	-2	13
11	La Chaux-de-Fonds	11	4	1	6	-15	13
12	Echallens	11	3	3	5	-10	12
13	Meyrin	11	3	2	6	2	11
14	Stade Payerne	11	3	2	6	-7	11
15	Coffrane	10	1	4	5	-4	7
16	Vevey Sports	10	1	1	8	-13	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Azzurri Bienne win, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.