Stade Tunisien vs CS Sfaxien Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Stade Tunisien and 1.11 for CS Sfaxien, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Stade Tunisien the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.21 – 1.11

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stade Tunisien home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade Tunisien to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Stade Tunisien and 1.11 for CS Sfaxien, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Stade Tunisien win38%

Draw28%

CS Sfaxien win34%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.2%
1–011.8%
0–110.9%
0–09.8%
2–18.0%

Recent form

Stade Tunisien

2026-10-23T13:30:00.000Z · A vs US Ben Guerdane · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Metlaoui · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ES Hammam-Sousse · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs US Monastirienne · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs CS Sfaxien · 1-1 (D)

CS Sfaxien

2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CA Bizertin · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs US Ben Guerdane · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Shooting Stars · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shooting Stars · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Zarzis · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	US Ben Guerdane	7	5	2	0	6	17
2	ES Tunis	5	4	0	1	3	12
3	Monastir	6	3	3	0	3	12
4	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	6	3	2	1	3	11
5	CA Bizertin	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	7	2	4	1	1	10
7	Club Africain	4	3	0	1	2	9
8	AS Marsa	7	2	3	2	2	9
9	CS Sfaxien	5	2	2	1	2	8
10	Stade Tunisien	5	2	1	2	1	7
11	ES Sahel	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	ES Zarzis	5	2	0	3	0	6
13	CS Hammam-Lif	7	1	2	4	-3	5
14	Olympique Béja	7	0	3	4	-5	3
15	ES Metlaoui	6	1	0	5	-6	3
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	7	0	1	6	-10	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.