Stade Hedi-Enneifer · Analysis updated 13:55 UTC
Stade Tunisien vs ES Tunis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Stade Tunisien and 1.54 for ES Tunis, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Stade Tunisien the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Tunisien home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
ES Tunis away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade Tunisien to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 23% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Stade Tunisien and 1.54 for ES Tunis, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Stade Tunisien
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ES Hammam-Sousse · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs US Monastirienne · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs CS Sfaxien · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Gabes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Ben Guerdane · 0-0 (D)
ES Tunis
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Sahel · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-31T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ES Zarzis · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-21T14:30:00.000Z · A vs BS Bouhajla · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Metlaoui · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ES Tunis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | US Ben Guerdane | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Club Africain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Monastir | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | CS Sfaxien | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | CA Bizertin | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Stade Tunisien | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | ES Zarzis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | AS Marsa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | ES Sahel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | CS Hammam-Lif | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | ES Metlaoui | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Olympique Béja | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.