Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Stade Tunisien vs Jamus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Stade Tunisien and 0.99 for Jamus, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Stade Tunisien the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.5% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Tunisien home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade Tunisien to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Stade Tunisien and 0.99 for Jamus, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–09.7%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–08.8%
Recent form
Stade Tunisien
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ES Hammam-Sousse · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs US Monastirienne · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs CS Sfaxien · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Gabes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Ben Guerdane · 0-0 (D)
Jamus
- 2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hilal Omdurman · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayon Sports · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mogadishu City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Simba · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Singida Black Stars · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.