· Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Stafford Rangers vs Hereford Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Stafford Rangers and 1.33 for Hereford, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Hereford the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stafford Rangers home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hereford away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hereford to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 31% / 27% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Stafford Rangers and 1.33 for Hereford, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–08.7%
- 1–28.6%
Recent form
Stafford Rangers
- 2026-07-14T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Shrewsbury · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vauxhall Motors · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Clitheroe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lower Breck · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chasetown · 0-0 (D)
Hereford
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hednesford Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedford Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stafford Rangers · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs South Shields · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Harborough Town · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.