· Analysis updated 17:55 UTC
Stal Brzeg vs Polonia Nysa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Stal Brzeg and 0.90 for Polonia Nysa, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Stal Brzeg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stal Brzeg win
63.0% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stal Brzeg home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Polonia Nysa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stal Brzeg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 21% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Stal Brzeg and 0.90 for Polonia Nysa, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.0%
- 2–011.0%
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
Stal Brzeg
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Odra Bytom Odrzański · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Polkowice · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Barycz Sułów · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Carina Gubin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs ROW Rybnik · 3-4 (L)
Polonia Nysa
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Warta Gorzów · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Miedź Legnica II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kluczbork · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rakow II · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stal Brzeg win, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.