· Analysis updated 01:24 UTC
Stal Brzeg vs Ślęza Wrocław Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Stal Brzeg and 1.00 for Ślęza Wrocław, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Stal Brzeg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stal Brzeg win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stal Brzeg home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ślęza Wrocław away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.6%
Recent form
Stal Brzeg
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Odra Bytom Odrzański · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Polkowice · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Barycz Sułów · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Carina Gubin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs ROW Rybnik · 3-4 (L)
Ślęza Wrocław
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Nysa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · Stal Brzeg 5-1 Ślęza Wrocław (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2025-05-30T13:30:00.000Z · Stal Brzeg 0-4 Ślęza Wrocław (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2024-11-09T12:00:00.000Z · Stal Brzeg 2-4 Ślęza Wrocław (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2023-03-25T14:00:00.000Z · Stal Brzeg 2-1 Ślęza Wrocław (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2022-08-20T15:00:00.000Z · Stal Brzeg 0-3 Ślęza Wrocław (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2022-04-02T12:00:00.000Z · Stal Brzeg 0-1 Ślęza Wrocław (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2021-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · Stal Brzeg 1-2 Ślęza Wrocław (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2021-06-06T12:00:00.000Z · Stal Brzeg 1-1 Ślęza Wrocław (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2020-11-14T12:30:00.000Z · Stal Brzeg 0-5 Ślęza Wrocław (III Liga - Group 3)
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 27 |
| 5 | ROW Rybnik | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Górnik Polkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Barycz Sułów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Kluczbork | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Miedź Legnica II | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stilon Gorzów | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Ślęza Wrocław | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Rakow II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stal Brzeg win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.