· Analysis updated 11:29 UTC
Stal Brzeg vs Starowice Dolne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Stal Brzeg and 2.25 for Starowice Dolne, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Starowice Dolne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stal Brzeg home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Starowice Dolne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 35% / 20% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Stal Brzeg and 2.25 for Starowice Dolne, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 80% and both teams to score at 77%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.2%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.4%
- 2–16.4%
- 1–35.4%
Recent form
Stal Brzeg
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rakow II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Nysa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Katowice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 1-1 (D)
Starowice Dolne
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-18T09:00:00.000Z · Stal Brzeg 2-0 Starowice Dolne (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-02-12T17:00:00.000Z · Stal Brzeg 5-2 Starowice Dolne (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.