Stal Brzeg vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Stal Brzeg and 1.26 for Zaglebie Sosnowiec, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Zaglebie Sosnowiec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.26

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stal Brzeg home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zaglebie Sosnowiec away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zaglebie Sosnowiec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 32% / 28% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Stal Brzeg and 1.26 for Zaglebie Sosnowiec, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Stal Brzeg win32%

Draw28%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.1%
0–111.8%
1–010.3%
0–09.4%
1–28.3%

Recent form

Stal Brzeg

2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rakow II · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Nysa · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Katowice · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 5-1 (W)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 1-1 (D)

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Polkowice · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Nysa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Barycz Sułów · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	13	9	1	3	9	28
2	Sparta Katowice	13	8	3	2	13	27
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	13	7	4	2	7	25
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	6	6	1	9	24
5	Barycz Sułów	13	6	3	4	3	21
6	ROW Rybnik	13	6	2	5	4	20
7	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	13	5	4	4	4	19
8	Górnik Polkowice	13	5	3	5	2	18
9	Miedź Legnica II	13	5	2	6	3	17
10	Stilon Gorzów	13	4	5	4	1	17
11	Stal Brzeg	13	4	3	6	3	15
12	Goczałkowice Zdrój	13	4	3	6	-3	15
13	Kluczbork	12	5	0	7	-6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	13	3	5	5	-8	14
15	Rakow II	12	3	3	6	-6	12
16	Polonia Nysa	13	3	3	7	-11	12
17	Carina Gubin	13	3	3	7	-12	12
18	Ślęza Wrocław	13	3	1	9	-12	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.