Stadion MKS Stal Jasień · Analysis updated 23:47 UTC
Stal Jasień vs Warta Gorzów Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Stal Jasień and 1.60 for Warta Gorzów, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Warta Gorzów the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Warta Gorzów win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stal Jasień home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Warta Gorzów away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Warta Gorzów to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 26% / 25% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Stal Jasień and 1.60 for Warta Gorzów, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
Stal Jasień
- 2026-05-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Słowianin · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Carina Gubin · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Gorzów · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Polkowice · 0-3 (L)
Warta Gorzów
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kluczbork · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rakow II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Nysa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 27 |
| 5 | ROW Rybnik | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Górnik Polkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Barycz Sułów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Kluczbork | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Miedź Legnica II | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stilon Gorzów | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Ślęza Wrocław | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Rakow II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Warta Gorzów win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.