Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu · Referee L. Lewandowski · Analysis updated 14:37 UTC
Stal Mielec vs Odra Opole Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.65 for Odra Opole, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Stal Mielec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stal Mielec home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Odra Opole away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stal Mielec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 23% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Stal Mielec and 1.65 for Odra Opole, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.8%
Recent form
Stal Mielec
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Poznań · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 3-3 (D)
Odra Opole
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Gornik Zabrze · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nieciecza · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Rzeszów · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Stal Mielec · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Krakow · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 3 | Nieciecza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Lechia Gdansk | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Warta Poznań | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | ŁKS Łódź | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Ruch Chorzów | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Miedz Legnica | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Stal Rzeszów | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
| 10 | Chrobry Głogów | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Pogoń Siedlce | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Odra Opole | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Polonia Bytom | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Stal Mielec | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 15 | Podbeskidzie | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.