Stal Rzeszów U19 vs Jagiellonia U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Stal Rzeszów U19 and 1.98 for Jagiellonia U19, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Jagiellonia U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Jagiellonia U19 win

53.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stal Rzeszów U19 home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Jagiellonia U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jagiellonia U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 25% / 22% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Stal Rzeszów U19 and 1.98 for Jagiellonia U19, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Stal Rzeszów U19 win25%

Draw22%

Jagiellonia U19 win54%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–19.8%
1–29.6%
0–17.7%
0–27.6%
1–36.3%

Recent form

Stal Rzeszów U19

2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Zagłębie Lubin U19 · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-29T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Warszawa U19 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Arkonia U19 · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Escola Varsovia U19 · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Zabrze U19 · 0-0 (D)

Jagiellonia U19

2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Zabrze U19 · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Talent Warszawa U19 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce U19 · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Miedź Legnica U19 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Escola Varsovia U19 · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Central Youth League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Miedź Legnica U19	12	8	1	3	12	25
2	Legia Warszawa U19	11	7	3	1	11	24
3	Śląsk Wrocław U19	12	6	3	3	5	21
4	Wisła Kraków U19	12	5	5	2	6	20
5	Zagłębie Lubin U19	12	5	3	4	1	18
6	Jagiellonia U19	11	5	2	4	2	17
7	Arkonia U19	11	4	4	3	-1	16
8	Raków Częstochowa U19	12	5	1	6	0	16
9	Lech Poznań U19	12	5	1	6	0	16
10	Górnik Zabrze U19	11	3	6	2	6	15
11	Talent Warszawa U19	12	5	0	7	-5	15
12	Polonia Warszawa U19	11	4	2	5	3	14
13	Stal Rzeszów U19	12	4	2	6	-7	14
14	Korona Kielce U19	11	2	4	5	-10	10
15	Escola Varsovia U19	11	2	2	7	-12	8
16	Arka Gdynia U19	11	1	3	7	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Jagiellonia U19 win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.