Stal Stalowa Wola vs Jastrzębie Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Stal Stalowa Wola and 0.85 for Jastrzębie, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Stal Stalowa Wola the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Stal Stalowa Wola win

67.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.15 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stal Stalowa Wola home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jastrzębie away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stal Stalowa Wola to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 19% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Stal Stalowa Wola and 0.85 for Jastrzębie, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Stal Stalowa Wola win67%

Draw19%

Jastrzębie win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

2–011.5%
1–010.7%
2–19.8%
1–19.1%
3–08.2%

Recent form

Stal Stalowa Wola

2026-10-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-17T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Znicz Pruszków · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Resovia Rzeszów · 2-0 (W)

Jastrzębie

2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Siedlce · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

II Liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	13	10	2	1	15	32
2	Tychy 71	12	7	5	0	12	26
3	Górnik Łęczna	13	7	2	4	13	23
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	6	4	3	-1	22
5	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	5	4	4	4	19
6	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	5	4	4	3	19
7	Podhale Nowy Targ	12	5	4	3	2	19
8	Stal Stalowa Wola	13	6	1	6	-2	19
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	13	5	3	5	3	18
10	Hutnik Kraków	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	Avia Świdnik	13	5	2	6	-4	17
13	Legia Warszawa II	13	5	1	7	3	16
14	Lechia Zielona Góra	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	2	6	5	-11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	3	1	9	-6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	2	3	8	-16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	13	0	6	7	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Stal Stalowa Wola win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.