Stadion Stali Stalowa Wola · Analysis updated 21:59 UTC
Stal Stalowa Wola vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Stal Stalowa Wola and 1.65 for Sandecja Nowy Sącz, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Sandecja Nowy Sącz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.2% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stal Stalowa Wola home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sandecja Nowy Sącz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sandecja Nowy Sącz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 37% / 23% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Stal Stalowa Wola and 1.65 for Sandecja Nowy Sącz, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Stal Stalowa Wola
- 2026-10-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Znicz Pruszków · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Resovia Rzeszów · 2-0 (W)
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Środa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Resovia Rzeszów · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Świt Skolwin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Avia Świdnik · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
II Liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 32 |
| 2 | Tychy 71 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | Górnik Łęczna | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 22 |
| 5 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 10 | Hutnik Kraków | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 11 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | Avia Świdnik | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 17 |
| 13 | Legia Warszawa II | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 15 | Sokół Kleczew | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -11 | 12 |
| 16 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.