· Analysis updated 08:43 UTC
Stalybridge Celtic vs Leek Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Stalybridge Celtic and 1.60 for Leek Town, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives Stalybridge Celtic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stalybridge Celtic home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leek Town away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stalybridge Celtic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 23% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Stalybridge Celtic and 1.60 for Leek Town, a combined 3.36 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.1%
Recent form
Stalybridge Celtic
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Curzon Ashton · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lower Breck · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bradford (Park Avenue) · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ashton United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leek Town · 1-1 (D)
Leek Town
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Worcester City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hyde United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bromsgrove Sporting · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redcar Athletic · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Khalsa · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · Stalybridge Celtic 1-1 Leek Town (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-03-29T15:00:00.000Z · Stalybridge Celtic 0-3 Leek Town (Non League Div One - Northern West)
- 2023-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · Stalybridge Celtic 1-5 Leek Town (Non League Div One - Northern West)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.