· Analysis updated 08:52 UTC
Standard Liège II vs Flénu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Standard Liège II and 0.79 for Flénu, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Standard Liège II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Standard Liège II win
77.5% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Standard Liège II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Standard Liège II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 14% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for Standard Liège II and 0.79 for Flénu, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 51%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.1%
- 3–010.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.9%
Recent form
Standard Liège II
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Saint-Gilloise II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Habay-la-Neuve · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Meux · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tubize · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Charleroi · 5-0 (W)
Flénu
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Onhaye · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs RWDM · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Seraing United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Verviers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ganshoren · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rochefort | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Meux | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | RWDM | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Tubize | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Olympic Charleroi | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 12 |
| 9 | Sporting Charleroi II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Standard Liège II win, at 77.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.