· Analysis updated 14:14 UTC
Standard Liège II vs Tubize Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Standard Liège II and 0.97 for Tubize, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Standard Liège II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Standard Liège II win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Standard Liège II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tubize away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Standard Liège II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Standard Liège II and 0.97 for Tubize, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–09.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Standard Liège II
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Saint-Gilloise II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Habay-la-Neuve · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Meux · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tubize · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Charleroi · 5-0 (W)
Tubize
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Charleroi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Albert Quévy-Mons · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rochefort · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Standard Liège II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Charleroi II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RWDM | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Rochefort | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Meux | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Tubize | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi II | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Olympic Charleroi | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Standard Liège II win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.